Hurricane Joaquin predictions

Hurricane Joaquin has been on the news as a very destructive hurricane for several days now. The only issue was no one was sure of where exactly the storm was going to hit. As the storm heads to the north to the U.S. from the Bahamas, we finally see a clearer model.


Photo Source: The Weather Channel (I did have a current model of the storm’s path at the time, but the photo is no longer available – updated Oct. 22, 2015).

Although the model doesn’t show Joaquin making landfall, the effects of the strong hurricane may still be felt inland and on the coast, from South Carolina all the way up to New Jersey. In fact, most of those states have declared a state of emergency already.

Joaquin has been hitting the Bahamas hard since Thursday, and will continue to be in danger through Friday night. According to AccuWeather, Joaquin will continue to hit the islands with strong gusty winds and catastrophic flooding. Wind gusts are expected to get as high as 75 to 120 mph on some east-central islands.

It is hard to say exactly how much rain, flooding, and wind the inland parts of states will get, but it is better to be safe than sorry. Many locations are preparing for the Category 4 hurricane by canceling classes and outdoor activities and taking time to stock up on food and water. The amount of rain and the high wind gusts could lead to power outages and downed trees due to the wind knocking the power lines and trees down. Major flooding is expected, too. The Weather Channel just stated on television that some parts of South Carolina could see up to 18 inches of rain. Those on the coast will be hit with coastal flooding and beach erosion, especially since there is rain and storms happening there now. Below are the three maps with the latest predictions for the east coast (provided by AccuWeather).


Photo Source:
AccuWeather


Photo Source:
AccuWeather


Photo Source:
AccuWeather

The biggest question I’ve heard all over social media and the news is if this storm will be another Superstorm Sandy. My guess is it won’t be as disastrous as Sandy was, but there will be threats of serious flooding in the states that will be hit by Joaquin. The good news is that the storm won’t actually make landfall; however, the call for major flooding is what will make this storm so incredibly dangerous. Take the proper precautions to ensure you and your family are safe during this storm.

I know a lot of people don’t take these storms seriously when they are all over the news like this, but it is always better to take the precautions rather than be left in danger. The truth is, meteorologists can’t actually “predict” the weather, rather they make educated guesses on what they believe will happen from what a myriad of models show them (this isn’t their fault, it just can’t happen – just like how scientists can’t actually “prove” anything in studies). Unfortunately no human or machine can actually predict what EXACTLY will happen, but they can get pretty close. We are lucky to have meteorologists; their weather and science knowledge help us prepare for severe weather. It is better to have an educated guess then no warning at all! So everyone should stop making fun of forecasters when they don’t have a clear picture of what a storm will bring, because chances are their predictions are better than yours! It is also true that it is hard to know the real path and strength of a storm until the time of it happening gets closer.

It will be interesting to see what Joaquin ends up bringing to the east coast of the U.S. Please stay safe, everyone!

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Arctic Blast in Western New York

The snow came down hard last night in West Seneca, NY. My brave friend, Kelsey Wrzos, was so kind to me and went outside to take some pictures! Take a look at the crazy snow storm that hit her hometown!

Superstorm Sandy

When the news came out that Hurricane Sandy was going to be historic, many didn’t believe the meteorologists. People, including my own friends and family, said the Weather Channel was just building up this storm too much. I, however, knew this storm was going to be epic. I followed the Weather Channel every minute of the day that I could. If I woke up in the middle of the night, I’d check for updates, just to make sure I didn’t miss a thing. When the Sandy made landfall, it got very hard to keep up with the news..only because most of it was so devastating. The storm was and still is going strong, but the damage it has brought to Cuba, Jamaica, Bermuda and the United States’ east coast was unbelievable.

My friend Jamie is just as obsessed with the weather as I am. Each hour we were giving each other updates on what we heard or experienced with the storm. We also made sure we kept in touch with our friends in the New York City area to be sure they were taking the proper precautions of the storm and most importantly, to reassure them to take this storm seriously.

I knew the storm was going to be terrifying because another one of my friends, Laci, told me about the wind and flooding going on around her condo in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida. The most important part about this was that the storm did not even make landfall at this point, but it was still causing damaging winds and flooding to surrounding areas. Laci sent me a couple photos of the flooding that was STILL occurring after the storm had passed Florida and made its way to the North Carolina coast. That was when I realized how massive this storm really was.

flooding in Ft. Lauderdale, Florida

Once Sandy made it to the North Carolina coast, my boyfriend Ryan and I immediately decided to drive to Wrightsville Beach to experience the epic storm. While the storm was not at full potential yet, the winds and waves were still very intense. I walked on the beach for about five minutes before I was completely drenched and full of sand. Again, this is when the storm was not even close to shore yet nor at its full potential.

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My day was made when I put my photos up on Instagram and added the hashtag #iWitnessWeather and received a ‘like’ from the Weather Channel. I had been trying to get their attention for so long – it was awesome to feel noticed for my work! 🙂

At first I was upset I was not at my home in Rome, NY to experience this massive hurricane, but I quickly changed my mind once Jamie had sent me a video of the waves hitting the coast of Rhode Island. At that point, there were wind gusts of 86 mph were recorded -BEFORE the storm made landfall! It also had 18-24 hours until the storm was going to hit land.

Meteorologists were unsure of where it would actually arrive on land, they were thinking right around New Jersey and Delaware. But when early evening hit on Monday, Sandy made landfall right off of the New Jersey coast.

What many people forget about this storm was that it collided with an arctic storm, causing winter storm warnings in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, Virginia and parts of western North  Carolina. So we had a mix of snow, rain, wind, thunderstorms, and much more that became components of Sandy.

So many disasters occurred Monday evening. It made it hard to watch the Weather Channel and the news: learning about the dangling crane, injuries and deaths, the power outage at the NYU hospital that forced patients to evacuate, flooded subway stations and the Breezy Point fire – and that is just some of the news. Before I went to bed, about 1 million people were without power. When I woke up, nearly 6.5 million people were without power. Less than an hour later, over 8 million people were without power. This is twice the amount of power outages compared to Hurricane Irene, which destroyed the east coast last October.

The scary part about today is, Sandy is still not over.